Getting to the Basket a Positive Good?

Let's take a look at today's Jazz Naotes [sic]:

Fisher searching for shooting touch

Ah, this will be Fisher apologizing for his horrible performance in the last 13 games, wherein he's shooting 30.6% with 9.5 FGA/Gm.

Deron Williams jokes with Derek Fisher about passing the ball to him, and Fisher — smile ear-to-ear wide — plays along.
"He's just bitter," Fisher, the Jazz's starting shooting guard, says of Williams, the Jazz's starting point guard who this season is averaging more assists per game (9.4) than everyone else in the NBA except two-time league MVP Steve Nash.
"He's just bitter because he's second in the league in assists and not first," Fisher adds with a sincere laugh, "and he feels like it's my fault, because if I hit a couple more shots then he would have been first."

Here's how I guess that "joke" went:

Deron: "This guy ****ing sucks, he doesn't pass, he can't shoot, and he keeps driving 1-on-4 and getting blocked."
Fisher: "He's just bitter."
SLMedia: "Hahahahaha!"

Nothing like a person making fun of doing his job horribly. Right now, Fisher's in the Sitcom Zone. He has become so inept and so inexplicably liked that he's Urkeled the SLMedia into fawning submission.

My favorite part, of course, is Fisher's replying with a "sincere laugh." What does that even mean?

All kidding aside, Fisher — who won three title rings with the Los Angeles Lakers and is known for being a sharpshooter when games are on the line — realizes he is struggling with his shot.

He's "known for being a sharpshooter when games are on the line"? Yet again, perception has out-distanced reality, and--in this case--is lapping it. In recent weeks, there have been quite a few games on the line. And in recent weeks, Fisher is shooting 30.6%.

Before making just 1-of-4 against Portland on Monday, the veteran guard hit just 2-of-9, 2-of-10, 3-of-13 and 4-of-11 in four of his five prior games.
"It's probably a small mechanical thing that I'm continuing to try to work through — trying to keep my focus on the rim, trying to stay with my shot," Fisher said.

That's a pretty small sample. Here's an expanded one:

Apr. 16: 1-4
Apr. 14: 2-9
Apr. 13: 3-7
Apr. 11: 2-10
Apr. 9: 3-13
Apr. 7: 4-11
Apr. 6: 5-15
Apr. 4: 3-8
Apr. 1: 2-7
Mar. 30: 5-11
Mar. 28: 3-8
Mar. 26: 2-10
Mar. 24: 3-11

That's a small mechanical problem the way lacking an engine is a small mechanical problem for a car.

Here's a better suggestion for the root of his problems:

Derek Fisher, Career FG%: 39.7

If the guy's a sharpshooter when games are on the line, he must have been in many, many blowouts. In reality, his recent struggles are just part and parcel of being a crappy shooter. Occasionally, when he gets hot, he'll hit 44% for a stretch. But in general, he'll be hovering in the low 40s and high 30s, the Jazz equivalent of Montana.

"But I'm attacking the basket better than I ever have and getting to the free-throw line," he added after making 11-of-12 from the line against the Trail Blazers, "so I'm really just trying to stay focused and in the moment."

Hey, gotta give him credit. In that same 13-game stretch, he's shooting 4.6 FTA/GM, higher than 2.2 career average. But, then again, attacking the basket is usually a lot better when that attack doesn't result in the ball getting spiked to midcourt by Earl Watson. One of my favorite stats is Points Per Shot, which generally shows how well offensive attempts are translating to points. Fisher's PPS over the last 13 games:

1.0.

1.0! He is scoring 1 Point per FGA. By comparison, on the season:

Notorious Offensive Liability, AK: 1.40
MLA King, Harp: 1.36.
Soft European, Giri: 1.24.
Rafer Alston: 1.19
Adam Morrison: .97

OK, Adam Morrison really sucks, but you get the idea. Even when Fisher is "attacking the basket better than [he] ever [has]," he's being less productive than the average production of his teammates. Incredible.

Even with only one regular-season game, tonight's vs. Houston, remaining before the Jazz open a playoff series against the Rockets this coming weekend, Fisher is confident he can iron out the wrinkles before postseason play gets under way.
"I guarantee you there won't be many people that'll leave me open come the playoffs," he said. "There is no question that I'm gonna be able to knock shots down if my teammates continue to hit me when I'm open. I'll get the job done — that's no problem."

What we have here is a guy that's not only admitting he only turns it on for playoffs, he's bragging about it. But, a few points:
-I guarantee you there will be people leaving Fisher open in the playoffs
-I guarantee you that he will knock down shots if his teammates continue to hit him when he's open, just at around a 40% clip
-he won't get the job done, that's a problem

And if there is one thing that is no problem for Fisher, especially lately, it's taking shots.

Heaven help me, but I can't tell if this is supposed to be a dig or admiration.

"I've been frustrated and disappointed with myself throughout the season at times because I feel like knocking down a few more shots would have helped us win a few more games," he said. "But, at the same time, the reason I was brought here was ... not just shooting the ball, not just one aspect of the game.

Not just shooting the ball? If the Jazz brought Fisher in AT ALL to shoot the ball, then they need to purchase a simple calculator and learn how to divide total FGM by FGA. But you gotta give Fisher credit. As frustrated and disappointed as he's been at his inability to help the team succeed, he plays through it. Like when he shot 3-11 in 18 minutes versus the Grizzlies. Or 5-15 versus Sacramento in a 4-point loss.

"It was being a leader on and off the court, helping guys understand how to be professional. I feel like I've lived up to those expectations," added Fisher, who took several shots Monday that were directed at Jazz owner Larry H. Miller because of disparaging remarks that Miller earlier had made about the club. "Now we're getting into that part of the season where people really feel like I can help this team, and I'm relishing the opportunity to be a part of it."

Ah, and we finish with the classic "Juxtapose-Comment-with-Contradictory-Context-
that-May-or-May-Not-Be-Intentional."

And yes, we are getting into that part of the season where Fisher can help the team: the off-season. Any time Fisher is not on the court in a Utah uniform is a win/win situation.

SLMedia, God bless'em.

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

Well, the Jazz won last night, but the Harpring start was a pretty big failure. He hit 5/14 shots (and that was only after going 2/3 after the game was pretty well in the bag), played his usual abysmal defense, and generally was Matt Harpring. Glad to see that the Jazz can go ahead and get past the experiment before the playoffs.

Oh, wait, Harpring was awesome.

DALLAS - Matt Harpring did not manage another season scoring-high when the Jazz beat the Dallas Mavericks 104-89 at the American Airlines Center on Friday night.
But he did make a big difference.

Already analyzing Harpring's game in terms of the last. "Wow, he scored 31 points, he's going to be great when he starts!" I fully expect his next 3/11 shooting night to be greeted with, "He didn't pull down 19 rebounds like he did against Orlando in 2003, but he might have been just as effective regardless."

Harpring entered the starting lineup for the first time all season to help the Jazz combat All-Star Josh Howard and avoid another sluggish start, and it worked. Though Harpring made just five of 14 shots on his way to 14 points, he held Howard to 12 points and fueled a fast start that the Jazz never relinquished.

Oh, so his importance was in setting the tone, eh?

First quarter:

(11:30): Harpring gets the ball in the post, tries to go up for a layup surrounded by three players, feebly passing it back when he realizes even he can't figure out a way to get a shot up. Scowls.

(10:50): Howard gets the rebound off a Fisher MLA. Howard gets the rebound at the free throw line. Harpring looks at him in puzzlement as he decides to run the ball downcourt. Harpring shuffles quietly behind him. He drives to the rim and is fouled shooting the ball. Harpring scowls at the help defense. Howard, however, is intimidated by Harpring's presence during the free throws and misses both.

(10:13): Harp makes a nice layup off a cut to the basket. Ah, HERE is the tone-setting.

(9:53): No, wait. Harpring takes the ball downcourt (!) and Boozer screens the defenders under the basket. Harpring, seeing his opportunity, drives and misses a point-blank MLA. But the thought sure set the tone.

(9:39): Josh Howard gets the ball at the three-point line. Harpring stares at him intensely, ready to defend. Howard blows by with next to no effort for an easy layup. Harpring stares at him intensely, ready to defend.

(9:10): Harpring, still thinking about the last play, watches Howard with a look of contemplation as he blows by again, only to short-arm an open layup. Harpring feels there was something he was supposed to do on that play, he just can't think of what.

(8:03): Harpring goes out to help on a screen and somehow ends up on the standing five feet beyond the three-point line with no opponent near him. Howard gets the ball and drives to the basket, hitting another chippy with minimal defense. At this point, Howard has had two free throws, two easy baskets, and a blown open layup in four minutes.

(5:36): A bit of space between Harp updates, but he that's because he didn't do anything in that time. For some odd reason, Sloan switches Fisher to Howard and Harpring to George. George quickly realizes his opportunity and knocks down an open jumper as Harpring flies by, making a Defense Gesture.

(4:00): Harp suddenly realizes he hasn't shot the ball in a while and shoots an ugly three with 16 seconds on the shot clock. He clanks it off the rim and into said shot clock.

So, eight minutes into the game and Harp is 1/3, Josh Howard is 2/4 (a missed open jumper on Fisher accounts for the fourth) with 2FTA, and the Jazz lead 16-10. The only real visible difference between this game and the last to the casual fan is the inclusion of Harpring in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, beat writers shouldn't be casual fans.

"Matt a lot of times sets the tone by coming in and working hard on offense and being physical," teammate Derek Fisher said. "And we seemed to start the game that way and played the way, for the most part, the entire game."
Harpring said he was surprised that coach Jerry Sloan asked him at the pregame shootaround to start. "We played hard," he said. "No question about that."

First, to be nitpicky, that second paragraph doesn't make sense. The quote they used from Harpring doesn't work with the previous contextualizing sentence. Unless that's now his answer to frickin' everything.

Second, that is not the reason the Jazz won. Here are some valid reasons the Jazz won the game:

• If you take Harpring out of the equation, the Jazz shot a blistering 56.1%.
  
• Dallas didn't play Jason Terry (Jazz-killer), Jerry Stackhouse (Jazz-player-killer), and Erick Dampier (probably just a killer).
• Avery Johnson wasn't exactly treating the game as a playoff matchup. Jose Juan Barea (who?) played 24 minutes and shot 15 times.
• The Mavs missed 13 out of 18 3FGA, and trust me, it wasn't from shutdown defense.

NOT BECAUSE THEY FRICKIN' PLAYED HARD.

*sigh*

Salt Lake Media.

[Edit]Holy crap, it gets worse.

Hide your women and children

Over the last 100 years there have been a number of incredibly alarming front page newspaper headlines that have horrified and shocked all who came into contact with them: "Hindenberg Crashes", "JFK Assassinated", "Titanic Sinks", and "Barbaro dies." All of those catastrophes, however, are dwarfed by today's headline in the Salt Lake Tribune which should have been more appropriately titled "Holocaust: Part Deux." The offending headline: "Sloan may start Harpring."

It's official, the sextagenarian should start reading his AARP magazine and start applying for social security, he's officially making decisions that can only be chalked up to senility. Sadly, the Tribune seems to be buying the riduclous stream of pro-Harpring propaganda. Next week's headline is bound to be "Benito Moussilini was merely unloved as a child."

Matt Harpring said he would be surprised if it actually happened.

But with the Jazz mired in a five-game losing streak that threatens to ruin their promising season, coach Jerry Sloan said he and his assistant coaches have "talked about" moving Harpring into the starting lineup for the first time all year when the Jazz play the Dallas Mavericks tonight at the American Airlines Center.

"We'll just have to look and see," Sloan said. "See if that's better for us."

Probably couldn't be much worse.

It's official, the Utah Jazz have decided that they need to join the growing number of teams tanking for the #1 pick in the draft. Unfortunately for them, that strategy doesn't work when you've already secured a winning record.

The only possible rationale for making such a move would be the "Utah needs to win the championship this season, play the veteran major minutes."

Such thinking is impermissably flawed. The reality is the Jazz have essentially a zero probability of winning the championship this season. At best they might win a round in the playoffs and give Dallas a good fight in the second round. No reasonable basketball fan can expect better out of this team. As a result, it's important that we use whatever opportunities we have to develop the talent that will actually be useful in 2-4 years when the championship push can occur. Harpring, a 30 year-old guy with creaky knees, isn't that guy. The people he's taking minutes from (Brewer, Millsap) might be. The reality is with Harpring there's no upside left to explore, he's been declining for 4 straight seasons, and the current version isn't good enough to make a meaningful difference in a championship run.

Furthermore, the Jazz by simply winning the division have exceeded expectations, there's no need to make some sort of last minute push to appease the fan base or critics who were given almost no hope of winning 50 games on opening day. All tiring the guy out by playing him nearly 40 minutes a game will do is make him (even) less effective come playoff time.

The Jazz have lost six of seven games since clinching the NBA's Northwest Division championship two weeks ago, and trail the Houston Rockets by 1 1/2 games in the race for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs

Part of the reason is that they often have been overmatched at the small forward position, where rookie Ronnie Brewer has been starting in place of injured Andrei Kirilenko. And with the Jazz about to face two All-Star small forwards - the Mavs' Josh Howard tonight and Phoenix's Shawn Marion on Saturday - at a time when they desperately need a victory, taking a chance on Harpring might be worth the risk to the rhythm of the rotation.

To say Brewer has been overmatched while starting recently is frankly a little silly. In part because he hasn't gotten the chance. In the 3 games he's played the results (and playing time) have been all over the map.

The first game he shot 5-7 from the field, scored 12 points, grabbed 3 rebounds, got an assist and a steal and committed no fouls. All in 18 minutes of playing time. In contrast, Harpring (who's actually been shooting well lately, must be spending extra time in the lay-up line) went 4-6 for 10 points, also had 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block in 30 minutes of playing time. He also accumulated 4 fouls in that time period. What I see is that the veteran leader who's hustling took nearly twice as long to achieve essentially the same production

The second game Brewer was rightly rewarded for a good game the night before and was given 33 minutes of playing time. Brewer went 7-9 from the field for 21 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and stole the ball once. To be fair, he also had 3 turnovers. Harpring had 28 minutes and hustled extra-hard trying to preserve his spot in the rotation after a clear threat from Brewer the previous game. He responded with 6-10 shooting for 17 points, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 6 turnovers.

Despite having consecutive good games for a rookie, Harp must have given Brewer the stink-eye in practice because Sloan immediately pulled him after only 5 minutes in the next game and gave Harpring 37 minutes.

Taking Brewer out in favor of Harpring, even if it was important for the Jazz to win as much as possible right now, isn't abandoning a failed experiment. It's aborting the experiment before it even began.

It appears we may need a new edition of the IJSPD flow chart just for harpring related decisions. As of now, Sloan's perception of Harpring's competition for minutes appears to be completely disconnected with reality. Maybe Brewer needs to work on his "shuffle."

HarpringSucks.com Quiz

Version one.

take the quiz here

Harpring Still Sucks

"We're obviously not getting stops," Harpring said. "And we're not moving the ball on offense. It's a bad combination."

Sometimes the guy just doesn't give himself any credit. Sure, the Jazz have lost three straight to lottery teams, and yes the last two losses have been phenomenal late-game collapses, but should Matt really be this hard on himself and on the team?

Not getting stops: Matt Harpring single-handedly held Rashard Lewis in the back-court for almost the entire remaining five seconds of Saturday's contest. He also successfully denied Lewis entrance inside the three-point arc all game, forcing him to shoot ten three-pointers. On Friday, he helped his teammates stop their assigned players by forcing the Kings to run their offense through Salmons. Also, he stopped Giricek from talking to him on Saturday by simply ignoring him.

Not moving the ball on offense: Sure, we've often criticized Harpring for being a tad selfish. But let's be realistic here. Late in Saturday's game, Harpring passed up a shot from the left wing in order to pass it to an on-fire Fisher on the other side. The ball didn't make it that far, but it's the thought that counts. And what of "The Pass" earlier in the game that hit exactly -- and I mean precisely -- the spot where Boozer had been just two seconds earlier.

The team may not be getting stops and may not be running the offense very well, but let's not blame Harpring, please.

IJSPD Flow Chart

Percentages: Follow-Up

Tough loss last night. I can't help but think that the results may have been different had the team just listened to their coach. Not ONCE did they toss the ball out of bounds with the clock running down, nor did they ever take a shot-clock violation for the overall good of the team. Jerry has really lost his handle on this group.

list of sequences where Jazz had possession with five or less seconds on the shot clock:

- 1st Quarter, 8:26, shot-clock at 1 second: Deron, obviously with more concern for his own stats than for team success, misses a layup which is partially blocked by Roy right before the shot clock expires. Roy ends up with a wide-open layup at the other end six seconds later as the Jazz are completely lost on defense. Sloan glares at Deron with that "the stats back me up!" scowl, but Deron doesn't see it. Sloan motions to Harpring to take over scowling duty for him.

- 1st Quarter, 4:03, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Fisher. Enough said, really. The thing about Sloan's theory is that it really only merits consideration if a certain player is the one taking the shot. Hint: NOT Deron (who shoots incredibly well when the shot-clock is winding down). Fisher misses the jumper, Outlaw gets two free throws 11 seconds later. In reality, this one doesn't count, as Sloan is impressed by the leadership and guts that were demonstrated by Fisher on this play. Being willing to take shots in that type of situation takes a real veteran.

- 1st Quarter, 0:09, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Harpring misses a jump shot, Outlaw misses at the other end. Jazz got lucky.

- 2nd Quarter, 11:38, shot-clock at 2 seconds: Williams feeds the ball to Collins, who hits a jumper. Jarron looks sheepishly back at the bench, insisting that "the ball slipped! I was trying to set up the offense, I promise!" Blazers miss at the other end, but get the rebound and make a shot. Must have been because Collins was out of position 22 seconds after his made shot. Jerry motions at the team statistician to make note.

- 2nd Quarter, 10:42, shot-clock at 0 seconds: Harpring barely gets the shot off, and misses. Blazers turnover on their next possession.

- 2nd Quarter, 9:21, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Williams hits a layup and gets fouled. But 22 seconds later, on the next possession, Outlaw hits a jumper. A-HA!

- 2nd Quarter, 4:16, shot-clock at 0 seconds: Fisher misses a 3. Portland misses on their next attempt.

Halftime. Jazz 0-7 in "Rash Decisions". Not ONCE was the offense set back up. ZERO shot-clock violations. Only 2 shots made and 5 points scored. After a stirring speech from the coach, Kirilenko says that he's ready to come out and have a big 4th quarter.

- 3rd Quarter, 7:36, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Boozer hits a shot. Blazers counter with a missed shot.

- 3rd Quarter, 2:54, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Okur hits a shot. Which is odd, since I don't remember Okur playing yesterday. Roy makes a 3-pointer 21 seconds later. Karma.

-4th Quarter, 11:17, shot-clock at 4 seconds: Okur called for traveling. NOW they've got it figured out. Took them long enough.

- 4th Quarter, 8:29, shot-clock at 3 seconds: Williams hits a 3. Give the kid a break, this is only his second year.

- 4th Quarter, 6:43, shot-clock at 0 seconds: Okur misses a 3. Magloire gets two free throws the other way, 12 seconds later. NOW I remember Okur playing last night.

- 4th Quarter, 3:49, shot-clock at 1 second: Giricek loses the ball. Minor victory. Blazers miss at the other end.

And that's it. In 13 opportunities, the Jazz shot 11 times. Only Okur was savvy enough to take a traveling call, and Giricek put in an effort by handing the ball to the opponent, but overall Jerry must have been furious. I'm sure he had Harpring give the entire team a good stinkeye after the game.

Out of the 11 shots, the Jazz made only 5 of them (45% -- interestingly slighly above their game average) for 12 points. However, off of the six misses, the Blazers scored on 3 of the ensuing possessions (5 points). Coincidentally, the Jazz lost by 5 points!

Draw your own conclusions from this data, but I think the message is clear: Harpring Sucks.